WN: Wired News:
"Where you stand on 'peak oil,' as parties to the debate call it, depends on which forces you consider dominant in controlling the oil markets. People who consider economic forces most important believe that prices are high right now mostly because of increased demand from China and other rapidly growing economies. But eventually, high prices should encourage consumers to use less and producers to pump more.
But Deffeyes and many other geologists counter that when it comes to oil, Mother Nature trumps Adam Smith. The way they see it, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway and other major producers are already pumping as fast as they can. The only way to increase production capacity is to discover more oil. Yet with a few exceptions, there just isn't much left out there to be discovered.
'The economists all think that if you show up at the cashier's cage with enough currency, God will put more oil in ground,' Deffeyes said.
There will be warning signs before global oil production peaks, the bearers of bad news contend. Prices will rise dramatically and become increasingly volatile. With little or no excess production capacity, minor supply disruptions -- political instability in Venezuela, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico or labor unrest in Nigeria, for example -- will send the oil markets into a tizzy. So will periodic admissions by oil companies and petroleum-rich nations that they have been overestimating their reserves."
If peak oil isn't here yet, it's close enough that some of these signs are already happening. I can't help but think that our need for a reliable oil supply was the underlying reason for the invasion of Iraq. It seems like Iraq is a dry well at this point...we need an exit strategy that insures us a source of oil for the tough times ahead. Secure the oil fields for ourselves? We could build our bases in the most oil-rich places in Iraq. I don't know what to do at this juncture, but we need to get something from the investment we've made in this war.