America's Peak Experience:
"'Please sir, just one thin mint.'"
In the fifties, geologist M. King Hubbert coined the term, "peak oil," to describe the tipping point at which petroleum supply reaches its maximum annual output. Total US oil production reached its peak in the seventies. Now, the question is when the world supply will reach its zenith.
Recently a number of academic papers have been published that forecast the peak year for world oil production. Most place this event in a time period between 2005 (Princeton Geologist Ken Deffeyes) and 2014 (Germany's Deutsche Bank). Not surprisingly, the most optimistic projection - 2037 - comes from the Bush Administration's forecasters at the Department of Energy.
When peak oil will occur is more than an academic issue. It represents an important milestone for policy makers because it sets a "drop dead date" for our preparation for a time of oil scarcity. Experts believe that it will take at least 10 years for the economy to make the transition from oil to the various alternatives; the longer we wait to start this, the more extreme the economic turmoil will be. "
All the more reason to leave the Arctic alone...we will need to save that stuff for the future.